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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."